Donkeys Always Win: December 2009

My poker results have been less than awe inspiring over the last several weeks. My full tilt account's high water mark was 5600, it's now down to 4006.77, a 1600 freefall. I have had some limited success on ultimate bet and am up 800 on that account but I feel like it's time to examine where I'm at in poker and evaluate my options. My ROI on Full Tilt over 240 tournaments is 19%.

Option 1: Switch back to full ring 100NL. I was beating the full ring 100NL game with a respectable win rate, 4PTBB's/100. I think the ring games are also good for one's overall poker growth. The only downside is they feel more like work and I don't enjoy them as much as the tournaments. I spend so much effort on table selection that it sometimes feels like more time is spent setting up the sessions than actually playing in them!

Option 2: Switch to the 6 max ring games. I have wanted to make the move from full ring to 6 max. I could step down to 50NL 6 max and see how that goes. It would still require the same effort in setting up the sessions but it would be something new and would be more exciting than going back to the full ring games.

Option 3: Continue playing the 24+2 tourneys on Full Tilt. My bankroll is still sufficient for this level and I really enjoy the ups and downs of going deep in the large field tournaments.

Option 4: Some combination of the above, perhaps #'s 3 & 4. I could play the 6 max games during the week, and tournaments on the weekends.

Any ideas or suggestions?

I am reeling from the worst bad beat/cooler poker has bestowed upon me. Imagine being sucker punched in the gut. That's pretty close to what it feels like both literally and figuratively. There will undoubtedly be more, and worse beats to come and for some strange reason that is comforting. Perhaps I can't get enough abuse!

The villain in this hand was the tournament chip leader, and there were 11 players remaining out of 1,135. First place paid over 6k.

To set up the hand a little, our villain had been playing very aggressively and I flopped the nuts, the best possible hand. Fate had smiled on me at exactly the right moment. With a set of tens my only concern was how to extract the most chips from my opponent! With a safe board (no flush draws and few straight draws), and an aggro villain who was the pre-flop raiser, I had all the ingredients for a slow play. I checked and the trap was set. When he checked back the flop I had mixed emotions. I would have preferred that he bet out and started to build a pot but also felt that he may have been slow playing an over pair and that I might be able to double up. I bet out the turn to start building a pot, but was hoping he would raise. When the river hit, and we got all of our chips in, I was keenly aware that A4 beat me, and that while that hand was in my villains range of possible holdings it was so unlikely as to not be a legitimate threat, like monsters under the bed. I was in great position to coast into the final table with a nice, newly minted chip stack. I was starting to sense that this was going to be the tournament that I had been waiting for, the one that would propel me to the next level. These thoughts were all flickering through my mind as I re-raised all in. He called and his cards showed; my mind instantly recognizing his A4, the one hand that was lurking in the depths of my brian, the one hand that was so dreadful, an ancient horror perhaps, one of such evil that we dare not speak of it lest it come true.

My stomach tightened and I felt like puking all over my computer.

An hour, maybe two has passed and I'm obviously not over it. I've been to subway and back, but my thoughts still drift to this hand, like a mental booger, clinging to my finger in spite of my best efforts to fling it off. Garbage in garbage out. It just wasn't fair. But thats a lie. It was absolutely fair in the cold way that stats, and numbers, and math, and cards can only be. They are incapable of being unfair, at least without dishonest human manipulation- cheating.

The casual observer would have maybe commented on the hand, most likely uttering "wow" but would have chalked it up to just another run of the mill typical bad beat. And a gut shot straight hitting on the river happens all of the time. But this doesn't do it justice, not by a long shot. It's more than just the circumstances and direct affect the outcome of the hand would have on me too. Sure if I win that pot I'll be a shoe in for the final table, the tournament chip leader, and likely finish in the top 3. But none of that accounts for the myriad of complex details that were below the surface, thoughts that were racing through my mind, evaluating the hand, the strategies that were in play and the mental jousting. With the information that I had it was not a mistake to shove all in on the river, even knowing that A4, (and 6,4 but that hand wasn't in his possible range of cards) would beat me. It would have been a mistake not to. The litmus test is are there hands that he would call with that you beat? And the answer is yes. He was a loose aggressive player and all of these hands were in his range, and these are also hands that he would have paid me off with: AA,KK,QQ,JJ,99,88,77,66,55,44,33,22,AT,KT,QT,JT,A9,K9,Q9,J9,98,97s. As the hand played out I intuitively knew that their were dozens of permutations of hands that I beat that he would still call with, and only the tiniest sliver that would beat me. Then of course there were all of the hands that he wouldn't have called with. He had exactly A4, the one and only possible holding that beat me. How sick.

I am now going to let this one go, and instead focus on more constructive things like becoming a better player.

Full Tilt Poker $16,500 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t5000/t10000 Blinds + t1000 - 5 players - View hand 408182

SB: t70667 M = 3.53

Hero (BB): t282891 M = 14.14

UTG: t713009 M = 35.65

CO: t325032 M = 16.25

BTN: t121758 M = 6.09

Pre Flop: (t20000) Hero is BB with T of clubs